The archive
Long-form entries, grouped by what you need: the first week, the money, the counter, the risk, or a check that you are on the official build.
These pages assume you have played the opening. They are fan research, not official documentation, and each one marks the line between confirmed material and interpretation.
01
Start here: what to do on day 1 Day one of Probably Stolen, in order: pick a start, open the shutter once, read the queue, inspect before you price, and set aside Sunday rent before you buy anything.
→ 02 Which starting scenario should you pick? Nine scenarios are playable, not twelve. What each one opens with, which ones carry a higher rent line, and how to choose by credits-versus-rent rather than by theme.
→ 03 How rent works, and how to stop falling behind Rent is collected every Sunday and rises after every rent day whether you paid or not. Here is the escalation, the grace problem, and the three-bucket rule that survives it.
→ 04 Buy the shop outright or take the mortgage? The buyout is the win, priced at 12,000 credits on Normal and flat until day 50. The Loan Shark’s mortgage gets you there sooner for more money. The arithmetic, and when each is right.
→ 05 What to do with the person at the counter Every sale is a four-way decision: approve, refuse, report or look away. How the queue is set before you open, and why the customer is part of the item.
→ 06 How to spot an Aug, and when to shoot Augs are people taken over by a rogue AI chip. Six official tells, one behavioural shortcut — they never haggle — and the manslaughter cost of being wrong.
→ 07 How to spot fake cigarettes, food stamps and Immunivax Three items can be caught as counterfeits with the inspection panel, and appraisal is a separate fee-based service. What to check, and what a margin really is.
→ 08 Contraband, inspections and the crime file The crime file has three thresholds — a fine under 300, arrest at 300, execution at 1,500 — and bribes add a line rather than erasing one. How to run a grey line without losing the shop.
→ 09 Six factions, reputation and the −100 line Six factions track you from −200 to +200, and −100 with four of them ends the run. How to choose a patron, what licences buy, and why consistency beats optimisation.
→ 10 How many endings does Probably Stolen have? 17 Two wins and fifteen losses, according to two independent transcriptions. The full list, the four failure systems, and why other pages say 15 or 14.
→ 11 Official release check: demo, Steam and fan builds One official build, Steam app 4348910, version 1.0.0.2. The Next Fest demo is retired, the browser remake is a fan project, and the dated numbers mean what they say.
→ 12 Appraisal: how it works, with the numbers The appraisal board opens on day 8: four ranks, six grade bands, three valuation items and a fee that pays for accuracy. The full loop, with community-sourced tables.
→ 13 Skip Intro vs the tutorial: what actually changes Skipping the intro is not a shortcut — it moves Odin to day 2, the Appraiser Board to day 5, the Mentor to day 12, starts events and the newspaper on day 1, and makes one achievement unreachable.
→ 14 All 21 achievements, and what they teach you The achievement list is a disguised systems map: a wealth ceiling above 100,000, attractiveness above 1,000, a sub-50-day buyout, and an entire appraisal profession.
→ 15 Every market event, with its numbers Fifteen random events move prices, bring a specific customer and last one to four days. The full table, plus the roll odds and the cooldown rule.
→ 16 Who made Probably Stolen Bei Ning Pan started it solo, interned at The Coalition, Ubisoft Montreal and Eidos, and names Space Station 13 and “a bit of” Papers, Please as inspirations.
→ 17 What other guides get wrong Six claims that circulate widely and do not survive a check against build 1.0.0.2: the start count, the ending count, the rent rate, the buyout, the scanner and controller support.
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