How events roll
The first random event can fire on day 6, or day 1 with Skip Intro. Up to three run at once, at most one new per morning, and the daily roll depends on how many are already active: 50 percent with none, 35 with one, 25 with two, zero with three.
Cooldown is duration plus three days, with two named exceptions — Mob Justice at 10 days and Oxymore Addiction at 5. Opposite events cancel: a new event moving a price the other way ends the one it opposes, and a re-roll of the same event extends its duration. All of this is community-sourced.
The table
Effects compound with your stock and your reputation, so the useful reading is not “what is expensive” but “what do I already have on the shelf”. An event that raises Water by 50 percent is worth nothing if your case is full of cigarettes.
| Event | Effect | Days | Brings |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nutrifruit Seed Heist! | Food +33%, Seeds +50% | 2 | Farmer |
| Poor Nutrifruit Harvest | Food +50% | 3 | Food Buyer |
| Massive Nutrifruit Harvest | Food −20% | 2–4 | None (tip only) |
| Treatment Plant Breakdown | Water +50%, Ration +50%, Beverage +45% | 3 | Spacer, Corporate Rep |
| Water Plant Maintenance | Water +35%, Ration +35%, Beverage +30% | 2 | Lower Level Citizen |
| Miners Return from Ice Asteroid | Water −25%, Ration −25%, Beverage −20% | 2 | Ice Miner |
| Construction Projects | Material +30% | 3 | Foreman |
| Mining Expedition Returns | Material −25% | 1 | Miner |
| Meteor Shower | Material +50% | 3 | Foreman |
| Counterfeit Medical Supplies | Medical +50% | 2 | Pharmacist |
| Oxymore Addiction On The Rise | Medical +25% | 2 | Clinic Volunteer, Addict |
| Low Power In The Lower Levels | Energy Cell +66% | 2 | Lower Level Citizen |
| Power Plant Maintenance | Energy Cell +33% | 1 | Lower Level Citizen |
| Who Turned Out The Lights? | Energy Cell +50%, Weapon +25%, Ammo +25% | 2 | Upper Resident, Shopkeeper |
| Mob Justice in the Lower Levels! | Weapon +33%, Ammo +33%, Armor +33% | 1 | Angry Citizen |
Community-sourced. Two further events (Hidden Storeroom Excavated, Which Way To The Pool?) move no price; Evidence Locker Break-In is day-7 only.
How to use the table
The play is to buy the affected category before the event and sell into it, or to hold stock you already have instead of dumping it. Events that bring a customer type are also a queue hint: a Pharmacist walking in during a medical event is a buyer with a reason.
Two events are scheduler, not random: Meteor Shower is scripted on day 12 without Skip Intro, and Evidence Locker Break-In is day 7 only and brings a Thief. Treat those as appointments rather than luck.
Lower Levels Ledger. “Every market event, with its numbers.” Last updated 2026-10-29. https://probablystolen.games/lore/market-events/